Financial Modelling for Analysts: Top 5 Real-World Case Studies Explained

Financial modelling isn’t just about building spreadsheets, it’s about understanding how numbers tell a story. These models help investors, analysts, and decision-makers evaluate business performance and forecast future outcomes. In this article, we’ll look at real-world case studies that show how analysts use financial modelling to make sense of complex business scenarios and market movements.

Before we dive into the examples, it’s worth noting that all these analyses rely on carefully structured Excel models for finance. These models connect financial statements, test different assumptions, and visualize business performance under multiple scenarios. Whether it’s projecting company earnings or valuing a merger, Excel remains the backbone of practical financial analysis.

Case Study 1 

Zomato IPO Case Study: From Losses to Profitability

Company Overview

Founded in 2008, Zomato began as a restaurant discovery platform and evolved into India’s leading online food delivery service. The company operates an aggregator-based model, connecting restaurants and customers through a technology-driven platform. Zomato also provides tools for restaurants to acquire new customers and manage deliveries efficiently.

IPO Overview

• Launch Date: July, 2021
  
• Issue Size: ₹9,375 crore
  
• Price Band: ₹72–₹76 per share
  
• Subscription: Oversubscribed 38.25 times
  
• Listing Price: ₹115 per share (52% premium over issue price)
  
• Market Cap at Listing: Approximately ₹1.2 lakh crore

The IPO was a significant milestone, marking Zomato as the first Indian unicorn to go public. Funds raised were allocated to expand delivery infrastructure, technology platforms, customer acquisition and marketing.

Financial Performance (FY19–FY24)

Fiscal Year	Revenue from Operations	Net Profit / (Loss)
FY19	₹1,300 crore	–₹1,020 crore
FY20	₹2,200 crore	–₹1,180 crore
FY21	₹2,786 crore	–₹1,000 crore
FY22	₹4,500 crore	–₹1,200 crore
FY23	₹8,000 crore	–₹971 crore
FY24	₹12,114 crore	₹351 crore

Observation:
For years, Zomato operated at a loss due to heavy spending on marketing, customer discounts, technology upgrades and partner incentives. But, its FY24 profit marked a turning point, driven by operational efficiency, improved order economics and growth in its quick-commerce arm, Blinkit.

Valuation Drivers and Market Perception

Despite persistent losses during its early years, investors valued Zomato based on long-term growth potential and structural shifts in India’s consumption patterns.

• Future Growth Potential: The Indian online food delivery market was projected to expand exponentially, supported by digital adoption, urban lifestyles, and increasing disposable income.
• Terminal Value Focus: A significant part of Zomato’s valuation came from its projected long-term cash flows, assuming operational leverage and sustained demand growth.
• Market Confidence: Zomato’s strong brand, early-mover advantage and market share dominance built trust among retail and institutional investors. The IPO’s massive oversubscription highlighted optimism about future profitability.

Valuation Techniques

• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Analysts applied DCF models using aggressive growth assumptions to justify high valuations despite negative cash flows in earlier years.
• Relative Valuation: Comparisons were made with global peers such as DoorDash and Uber Eats. Higher valuation multiples were accepted due to expectations of market leadership and future profitability.

Analyst Insights

JP Morgan
In its September 2024 report, JP Morgan raised Zomato’s target price from ₹208 to ₹340, signaling nearly 40% upside. The report credited this to Blinkit’s accelerated expansion and improved monetization, maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock.

CLSA
CLSA assigned a target price of ₹353 per share, highlighting Blinkit’s rapid market share growth and its potential to turn profitable by FY25. It projected quick-commerce operations to outpace traditional food delivery in profitability.

UBS
UBS increased its target price from ₹260 to ₹320 per share, citing stronger-than-expected earnings and the quick-commerce segment’s contribution to margins. UBS projected Zomato to achieve EBITDA breakeven and positive margins by FY25.

Key Takeaways

• Investor Readiness: Zomato’s IPO demonstrated that Indian investors were prepared to embrace tech-driven, loss-making startups with potential for scale.

• Timing and Brand Equity: The IPO benefited from favorable market conditions and Zomato’s strong consumer recall.

• Investor Psychology: Valuations focused on growth narratives rather than past financials, reflecting changing investor attitudes toward digital businesses.

• Profitability Turning Point: Zomato’s first profitable fiscal year in FY24 validated early investor optimism and marked the company’s strategic transition from a cash-burning startup to a scalable, profitable enterprise.

Case Study 2

Tata Motors – Iveco Acquisition: Strategy, Valuation and Risk

Introduction

Tata Motors announced the acquisition of Iveco Group for €3.8 billion (₹33,360 crore) in an all-cash offer at €14.10 per share. This is the largest acquisition in Tata Motors’ history. The deal combines Tata’s commercial vehicle business in India with Iveco’s presence in Europe and Latin America.

Strategic Reason

The acquisition allows Tata Motors to:

• Enter new markets through Iveco’s distribution networks
  
• Access technology for electric and hydrogen commercial vehicles
  
• Achieve scale with combined annual revenue of €22 billion and sales of 5.4 lakh vehicles
  
• Create synergies in revenue and cost, with free cash flow synergies of 0.5 percent by FY28

Deal Structure and Funding

Tata Motors will finance the €3.8 billion acquisition using bridge loans, equity, and asset sales.

• Bridge Loan: €3.8 billion secured from Morgan Stanley and MUFG
  
• Equity Fundraising: €1 billion through rights issue or Qualified Institutional Placement
  
• Asset Sale: Selling 4.7 percent stake in Tata Capital to reduce debt
  

Table 1. Iveco Deal Overview

Detail	Value	Context
Deal Value	€3.8 billion (₹33,360 Cr)	Tata Motors’ largest acquisition
Offer Price	€14.10 per share	All-cash offer
Largest Shareholder	Exor, 27.06% stake	Committed to sell
Combined Revenue	€22 billion+	Global scale
Combined Vehicle Sales	5.4 lakh units/year	Commercial vehicle market
Expected CV Revenue Growth	₹75,000 Cr → ₹2 lakh Cr	If integration succeeds
Synergies	0.5% of revenue (FY28)	Extra cash flow

Pre-Deal Financials

Iveco (excluding defense, € million)

Category	2024	2023	Change	% Change
Industrial Activities	13,815	14,656	-841	-5.7
Financial Services	558	494	64	13
Eliminations & Others	-217	-156	-61	39
Total Revenue	14,156	14,994	-838	-5.6

Tata Motors – CV Segment (₹ crore)

Year	Revenue	EBITDA Margin
2024	78,791	10.8
2023	70,816	7.4
2022	52,287	3.7

Valuation and Synergies

The valuation depends on future growth and market perception. Investors consider:

• Revenue growth from Indian and international markets
  
• Technology gains from electric and hydrogen vehicles
  
• Potential cash flow synergies and cost savings

Impact and Risks

• Indian Auto Sector: More jobs, EV technology, exports, and market expansion
  
• Shareholders: Long-term growth expected, EPS contribution within two years
  
• Risks: Integration challenges, European market competition, debt repayment

Analyst Insights

• JP Morgan reports Tata Motors has potential to become a global leader with strong synergies.
  
• Autocar Professional projects ROCE of 20 percent and positive EPS within two years.
  
• Investors see long-term value but note integration and market risks.

Case Study 3

Tesla’s Valuation: A DCF Case Study That Redefined Growth Modelling

Introduction

Tesla’s valuation has been one of the most debated topics among analysts in recent years. As a company that sits at the intersection of automotive, energy and technology, it challenges traditional financial modelling frameworks. This case study examines how analysts used the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to understand whether Tesla’s market value truly reflects its long-term potential.

Company Overview

Tesla Inc. was founded in 2003 and has evolved from an electric vehicle manufacturer into a diversified energy and technology business. Along with cars, Tesla produces battery storage systems, solar energy products and software-based driver-assistance technology.

According to MacroTrends, Tesla’s revenue grew from US$24.6 billion in 2019 to US $97.7 billion in 2024, marking a 4 times increase in five years. Net income also rose sharply, from US$0.86 billion in 2019 to US$13.4 billion in 2024, reflecting stronger production capacity and operating leverage.

Much of this growth came from the success of Model 3 and Model Y, expansion of Gigafactories and steady adoption of software-linked revenue streams like Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD).

Financial Snapshot (FY2019–FY2024)

Fiscal Year	Revenue (in USD Billion)	Net Income (in USD Billion)	Vehicles Delivered (in Million)
2019	24.6	0.86	0.37
2020	31.5	0.72	0.50
2021	53.8	5.5	0.93
2022	81.4	12.6	1.31
2023	96.8	14.9	1.80
2024	97.7	13.4	1.85

(Sources: MacroTrends, Tesla Investor Relations)

DCF Framework and Modelling Assumptions

Valuing Tesla requires a different approach from traditional automotive companies. Analysts combined both relative valuation (comparing with peers) and intrinsic valuation (DCF).

Key assumptions were:

• Revenue growth tapering from 22.5% in 2027 to 3% by 2033
  
• EBIT margin stabilizing around 17%
  
• Capital expenditure at 6% of revenue
  
• Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) at 9.5%
  
• Terminal growth rate at 3%

Based on these inputs, Tesla’s intrinsic value was estimated between US$185–200 per share, while its market price hovered around US$250 in mid-2024 (Yahoo Finance). This indicated a potential overvaluation, driven more by market optimism than near-term fundamentals.

Source: Financial Edge

DCF Sensitivity Analysis

Analysts observed that even small changes in assumptions significantly affect Tesla’s value.
A 1% change in WACC altered the fair value by almost US$40 per share, while a 0.5% change in terminal growth moved the value by around US$25–30.

This sensitivity highlights how investor perception and cost of capital play a crucial role in high-growth company valuations.

Peer Comparison and Valuation Multiples

When benchmarked with peers, Tesla trades at a much higher valuation:

• EV/Revenue multiple: ~7.5x
  
• EV/EBITDA multiple: ~40x
  (multiples.vc)

In comparison, Toyota and Ford trade at less than 2x EV/EBITDA. This shows how investors classify Tesla closer to a technology company than a traditional automaker, reflecting belief in its innovation-led business model.

Analyst Insights

Investment banks hold diverse opinions about Tesla’s true value:

• Morgan Stanley:
  In its 2024 report, Morgan Stanley projected Tesla’s long-term revenue to reach $250 billion by 2030, supported by autonomous driving and battery technology. However, it cautioned that high multiples depend on execution speed.

• Goldman Sachs:
  Goldman’s valuation model valued Tesla between $780–$850 billion, noting that free cash flow growth remains the key driver.

• JP Morgan: 
  Target price revised to US$120, reflecting expectations of lower deliveries and pricing pressure.

Source: Nasdaq Reuters Investing.com  

Key Learnings

1. DCF Modelling Needs Flexibility: Growth-driven firms require longer projection horizons and sensitivity testing.
   
2. Valuation Depends on Perception: Investor optimism can lead to higher prices even if intrinsic values suggest moderation.
   
3. Business Model Evolution: Tesla’s valuation premium reflects its technology orientation, not just manufacturing output.
   
4. Analyst Divergence: Wide target ranges highlight the challenge of forecasting disruptive companies.

Case Study 4

Infosys DCF Valuation Case Study: Stability Backed by Strong Cash Flows

Company Overview

Founded in 1981, Infosys Ltd. is a leading global IT and consulting firm headquartered in Bengaluru, India. The company provides digital transformation, cloud, AI and business process management services to clients in over 50 countries, including several Fortune 500 enterprises.
Infosys operates on long-term service contracts and recurring revenues, ensuring consistent cash inflows. Its core strength lies in its asset-light model, high operating margins, and strong cash conversion, supported by a debt-free balance sheet.

DCF Valuation Overview

Valuation Date: October 30, 2025
Market Price: ₹1,493.8 per share

Key Inputs:

• Discount Rate (WACC): ~10%
  
• Terminal Growth Rate: ~4%
  
• Projection Basis: Stable revenue growth, operating margins ~21–22%, high free cash flow conversion

🔗 Source: Bloomberg Consensus and Internal DCF Model (October 2025)

Financial Performance (FY21–FY25)

Fiscal Year	Revenue (₹ Crore)	Net Profit (₹ Crore)
FY21	100,472	19,351
FY22	121,641	22,146
FY23	146,767	24,108
FY24	162,793	27,025
FY25*	177,432 (est.)	29,670 (est.)

Estimates based on market consensus and internal DCF assumptions.
Sources: Infosys Annual Reports FY21–FY24

Observation

Infosys has shown consistent growth over the past five years, driven by digital transformation demand, automation services, and large-scale outsourcing contracts.

Its net profit margin improved steadily, supported by cost optimization and operational efficiency. The company’s cash and equivalents exceeded ₹47,000 crore in FY25, while debt remained negligible, highlighting strong liquidity.
🔗 Source: Infosys FY25 Standalone Financial Statements

Even in volatile macro environments, Infosys maintained double-digit ROE and robust free cash flow generation, making it one of India’s most stable large-cap IT firms.

Valuation Drivers and Market Perception

Strong Cash Reserves:
With ₹314 billion (₹31,400 crore) in cash and short-term investments, Infosys enjoys one of the healthiest balance sheets in the Indian IT sector.

Sustainable Margins:
Stable EBITDA margins around 21–22% and a high conversion rate from profits to free cash flow indicate strong operational control.

Global Demand for Digital Services:
Infosys continues to win large digital transformation and AI automation deals globally, ensuring steady top-line growth.

Terminal Value Dominance:
More than 60% of total DCF value is derived from terminal value, showing investor reliance on the company’s ability to sustain cash flows long-term.

Market Sentiment:
Despite being fundamentally strong, Infosys’s valuation often fluctuates with global tech cycles and rupee-dollar movements. The DCF base case indicates slight overvaluation at current prices, while the bull case reflects upside if digital deal momentum continues

Valuation Techniques

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF):
   Analysts used projected free cash flows from FY26 to FY35, discounted using a WACC of ~10%, with a terminal growth rate of 4%.
   Given Infosys’s predictable cash flows, this approach helps capture its intrinsic long-term value.
   
2. Relative Valuation:
   Infosys trades at a P/E multiple of 27x (FY25E), comparable to TCS (28x) and higher than HCL Tech (22x). Valuation multiples remain elevated due to its consistent dividend payout, strong governance, and leadership position in global IT services.

Analyst Insights

JP Morgan (August 2025):
Reiterated an Overweight rating with a target price of ₹1,800, citing recovery in large client spending and strong deal pipeline across the US and Europe.

Nomura (September 2025):
Maintained a Neutral stance with a target of ₹1,500, highlighting near-term margin pressures from wage hikes but long-term digital tailwinds.

Motilal Oswal (October 2025):
Upgraded Infosys to Buy, setting a target of ₹1,750, supported by strong order wins and resilient Q2FY26 guidance.

Key Takeaways

• Steady Performer: Infosys’s valuation demonstrates its position as a stable, cash-generating business with predictable returns, unlike high-volatility tech startups.
  
• DCF Discipline: A well-built DCF model reveals that much of Infosys’s value stems from its ability to sustain free cash flows beyond FY30.
  
• Investor Insight: Short-term price swings are often sentiment-driven, but intrinsic valuation remains grounded in fundamentals.
  
• Growth Catalyst: Expansion into AI-driven and cloud transformation projects will likely support long-term valuation growth.

Infosys is a strong example of how valuation modelling helps investors understand a company’s true worth. The DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model used here projects future cash flows based on expected growth, margin assumptions, and discount rates. Analysts then adjust these assumptions to reflect realistic scenarios.

This kind of analysis is highly relevant for finance analysis 2025, where the focus is shifting towards data-driven valuation and automation within Excel

Case Study 5

ONGC – Oil & Gas Forecasting Model (Energy Sector)

Company Overview
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC) is India’s largest oil and gas producer. It contributes around 70% of India’s crude oil output. It is a Maharatna PSU that works in exploration, production, and refining partnerships in India and overseas.

Business Context
ONGC’s profit depends on crude oil and domestic gas prices. The main factors that affect its earnings are production levels, selling prices, and government-regulated gas pricing. Other influences include the rupee–dollar exchange rate and taxes such as cess and royalty.

Objective of the Model
The forecasting model is used to estimate ONGC’s revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow (FCF) over the next 5 to 10 years. It supports valuation methods like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Net Asset Value (NAV). The model includes data on production, pricing, costs and capital expenditure (capex). It is used to test how finances change under different oil price conditions.
(Source:ICICI Securities) 

Modelling Approach
The model separates production into crude oil and natural gas. Production forecasts are based on field decline rates and new well additions. The selling price is linked to Brent crude and the domestic APM gas pricing formula.

Operating costs include lifting cost per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), royalty and exploration cost. Capex is taken from ONGC’s FY25 plan, which focuses on exploration and field redevelopment.
(Source: ONGC FY25 Integrated Report)

For valuation, the model assumes:

• Brent crude price: USD $75 per barrel
  
• Terminal growth rate: 2%
  
• Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): about 9%

Sensitivity analysis is done for a $10 change in Brent price and 5% change in production to check the effect on FCF.

Financial Snapshot (FY21–FY25)

Year	Revenue (₹ Crore)	PAT (₹ Crore)
FY21	68,087	21,343
FY22	1,10,319	49,294
FY23	1,44,513	34,046
FY24	1,29,741	57,101
FY25	1,33,863	35,610

Source: Moneycontrol Financials FY21–FY25

From FY21 to FY23, ONGC’s revenue more than doubled as crude oil prices surged post-COVID. FY22 saw the highest profit due to elevated Brent prices and increased production volumes. In FY24, revenue dipped slightly because of moderation in global prices, but profits remained strong thanks to cost control and better gas realisations. FY25 shows stable performance, with revenues steady and profits normalizing, a typical pattern for a cyclical commodity company.

In simple terms, when oil prices rise, ONGC’s profits jump quickly when prices fall, revenue stabilizes but margins compress. The company’s consistent profitability through these cycles shows its resilience and low-cost production advantage.

Impact of Oil Prices:
A change of 10 dollars in the Brent crude oil price can affect ONGC’s earnings per share (EPS) by around 15 to 18 percent. This shows that the company’s profits depend heavily on global oil prices, so price-based forecasting is important.

Capital Spending and Growth:
ONGC’s FY25 plan includes over ₹30,000 crore for exploring new oil fields and improving existing ones. This spending directly affects how much the company can produce in the coming years.

Effect of Government Policy:
Since domestic gas prices are regulated by the government, ONGC’s profit margins can shrink even when international oil prices increase. The forecasting model includes this risk while estimating future cash flows.

Valuation Outcome

In the base case scenario, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model gives a value of about ₹285 per share. This is close to the average analyst target of ₹289.6 as of October 2025.

Conclusion

Insights from the forecast showed that cyclicality dominates ONGC’s earnings. A $10 shift in Brent alters ONGC’s EPS by roughly 15–18%, highlighting the need for price-linked modelling. The company’s FY25 plan also allocated over ₹30,000 crore towards exploration and field redevelopment, making capex forecasting a key input in valuation.

These variables are built into Excel-based financial models that help visualize how revenue and profit fluctuate with global energy trends.

Final Thoughts: What These Case Studies Teach Us

Each of these real-world case studies proves that financial modelling is both an art and a science. While Excel formulas and valuation methods matter, what truly separates a good analyst from a great one is the ability to connect numbers with business realities.

Whether it’s using Excel models for finance to forecast revenue, testing assumptions through sensitivity analysis or evaluating risks with a DCF model every step teaches you to think like an investor.

As we move deeper into finance analysis 2025, companies and analysts alike are emphasizing accuracy, scenario testing, and sustainable assumptions. Use these practical modelling tips to refine your approach, question your projections, and always link your numbers back to real business drivers. That’s what makes a financial model truly powerful.

People Also Ask:-

1. Why are real-world case studies important in financial modelling?

Ans. They help you understand how theoretical models apply in real business situations, giving you a clearer view of industry challenges and outcomes.

2. What are some must-know Excel models for finance in 2025?

Ans. Common ones include DCF valuation models, LBO models, merger analysis, and three-statement forecasting models.

3. How can I improve my finance analysis in 2025?

Ans. Focus on automation, scenario-based modelling, and keeping models dynamic using tools like Power Query and Python integration in Excel.

4. What are some practical modelling tips for beginners?

Ans. Use consistent formatting, build modular models, validate assumptions with sensitivity analysis, and always document your logic.

5. Are these case studies relevant for professionals as well?

Ans. Absolutely. Both students and professionals can gain actionable insights from real-world examples that demonstrate financial decision-making and risk management.